Assessing likelihood and impact

1. Regulatory Concept & Core Standards

This video's topic is assessing likelihood and impact. By the end, you should be able to use consistent assessment criteria. We will connect the information available, the criterion guiding the decision and the action that must be recorded. Follow the case and compare your answer with the proposed response. The risk matrix supports prioritisation. Scales and methods are educational management choices unless specific national law requires otherwise. A risk score does not prove that a breach occurred.

Scales are a documented methodological choice. Likelihood differs from impact. Numerical scoring aids comparison but must not conceal uncertainty or an unacceptable serious consequence.

Apply the following rule: The consolidated text includes the 2024 and 2025 amendments. Section 32, amended in 2025, specifies the professional categories protected for national-law reporting, including former and prospective working relationships. The channel must distinguish EU-law and national-law scope, later identification after an anonymous report, the special retention rule and the obligation to stop internal handling when the person moves to an external route.

2. Practical Implementation & Procedure

Define each level. Use available evidence and state limits. Reassess after changes or new incidents. Before moving on, turn this procedure into a sequence you could explain to a colleague. Identify the first check, the action that depends on its outcome and the record that allows the decision to be reconstructed. Follow the sequence on screen and identify the point where an error would change the result.

Consider how a colleague taking over tomorrow would understand the decision. Identify the verified information and its source, who is authorised to decide and who checks the result. The record should connect the decision to the material actually used rather than repeat the whole file. State critical gaps and assign a specific action to resolve them. This makes continuity independent of one person’s memory. Apply the proposed organisational steps within legal powers. In the case, distinguish observation, conclusion and hypothesis. An observation describes available evidence, a conclusion explains what can reasonably be inferred and a hypothesis still needs checking. Do not infer motives merely from unusual behaviour. Identify which further information could change the decision and whether it can be obtained lawfully and proportionately. Incomplete knowledge justifies neither certainty of guilt nor indifference to an actual risk.

3. Case Study & Compliance Action

Two teams score the same risk differently because one treats high as frequent and the other as severe. Now read the case carefully. Separate established facts from information you would still need to confirm. Do not add motives or events that have not been described. This distinction matters when choosing a response proportionate to the information available.

The exercise is as follows: What should be corrected first? Choose an answer and write one sentence explaining it. During the pause, compare your choice with the criteria we have just considered. Also think about the material you would retain to explain the decision later.

Agree definitions of likelihood and impact with examples so that scores have the same meaning.

One mistake to avoid is: comparing numbers from different scales.

Now apply the national rule to a second decision. The team presents all integrity tools as mandatory in every country. How should the wording be corrected?

Distinguish the actual national duty and its conditions from recommended practice. The specific rule must appear in the relevant procedure. Every duty needs a source, and every organisational choice needs a purpose, responsible person and operating evidence. The Portuguese RGPC is not national law in Cyprus.